Self-driving cars, once merely a figment of science fiction novels, now travel the streets of San Francisco in droves. Riders of Waymo, the most prominent self-driving car company, can sit in cushioned leather seats and work, relax and even connect to the car’s speakers — all while the car drives itself. But as Waymo grows, Uber and Lyft drivers find themselves in a rapidly changing job market. 

Waymo launched its Waymo One service in Phoenix in 2020, and its rider-only service in San Francisco in 2022, which has now expanded to the San Jose area. Since then, San Franciscans have begun to use the autonomous vehicles (AVs) to get around the city as an alternative to Uber. This has begun to transform the job market on the roads: While Uber controlled about 63% of San Francisco’s rideshare market at the end of 2023, this percentage dropped to less than 55% as of January 2025. 

According to Waymo’s website, riders can use Waymo in five cities: Atlanta; Austin, Texas; Los Angeles; San Francisco; and Phoenix. Waymo also operates in 12 other cities where it is working up to offering commercial rideshare services. “Waymo is expanding very aggressively,” said Sergio Avedian, Uber and Lyft driver and senior contributor at The Rideshare Guy — an online resource for rideshare and delivery drivers — in an interview with The Urban Legend. “Waymo is already [doing] a million trips a month in California.”

Students have noticed Waymo’s growth as well. “There’s a lot of people that definitely take Waymos in place of Uber that a few years ago would’ve been taking an Uber,” Lawson Smith ’26 said.

As part of its expansion, Waymo has begun partnering with Lyft and Uber, meaning customers can access Waymo on the Uber app in some cities. Uber announced its partnership with Waymo in Atlanta, and Austin, Texas on Sept. 13, 2024. Additionally, on Sept. 17, 2025, Lyft announced that it would be partnering with Waymo in Nashville, Tenn., where Waymo’s services are not yet available for customers.

However, Uber and Lyft’s potential new self driving options may affect their drivers. “Lyft was very interested in, ‘If we no longer have to pay drivers, then maybe that helps us,’” said Jon Alferness, former VP of ridesharing at Lyft, in an interview with The Urban Legend.

Because self-driving cars do not require a human driver, they can take business from Uber and Lyft drivers. “[Waymos] can drive 22 hours a day. Basically, each autonomous vehicle replaces three to four human drivers,” Avedian said.

Studies show a decline in pay for rideshare drivers across cities with AVs. In a 2025 report, rideshare data collection company Gridwise Analytics wrote, “Monthly gross pay [for rideshare drivers], which captures all pay across all trips, has declined in several AV-active markets, even as national earnings rose.” 

“Hourly pay fell across all AV-active cities from July 2024 to July 2025, with the sharpest drops observed in Austin (–5.3%) and San Francisco (–6.9%),” Gridwise Analytics wrote in the report. This contrasted with a 1% increase in national hourly pay for rideshare drivers in cities without AVs.

Some Uber drivers have expressed concern about Waymo’s increasing popularity. In an interview with The Urban Legend (translated from Russian to English), Aleksandra Konopleva talked about her boyfriend’s experiences working for Uber. “His earnings fell a lot,” she said. “It’s hard to say if it’s directly because of Waymo, but recently, wages have fallen.”

Some Uber drivers have experienced financial benefits from the rise of Waymo. “Uber … got scared of Waymo. So now, [for the] last three months, they’re giving us some bonuses,” Uber driver Radasav Vasilijevic said in an interview with The Urban Legend. “Uber has to keep us busy and keep us on the road.”

According to Vasilijevic, who has been driving for Uber for 12 years, the company offers bonuses at certain times of day. These bonuses can reach up to $15 per ride for drivers in certain busy areas of San Francisco, including the Sunset, Richmond and Downtown. “[The bonuses have] increased my income each day [by] around $50 [or] $60,” Vasilijevic said.

These bonuses, officially called active boosts, or Boost+, are intended to incentivize Uber drivers to drive in busy areas with especially high demand. However, these boosts have not been definitively linked to the rise of Waymo.

Many Uber drivers are not worried about AVs impacting their jobs. In a survey on his YouTube channel, Avedian asked Uber and Lyft drivers how worried they were about Waymo limiting their jobs. According to Avedian, 50% of respondents were not worried while another 30% anticipated being worried within the next decade. “On average, they seem like they’re not concerned,” Avedian said.

Vasilijevic shared his views about Waymo. “My opinion is [that] Uber is still gonna be with the drivers for the next 10 years, and even more, because people don’t accept or adapt to change very fast,” he said.

To some, Waymo seems more popular amongst younger people. “A lot of people don’t trust [Waymo] — like a lot of older people,” said Mike, an Uber driver, in an interview with The Urban Legend.

Some students have noticed this as well. “A lot of kids use Waymo,” Charlie Blum ’29 said. “My dad’s 60-something, [and] he never rides Waymo by himself.”

For some, Waymos’ lack of drivers can make them feel safer than they do while taking Ubers. “When you’re in an Uber, there are multiple layers of danger: … the driving [ability] and the person,” Blum said. “A Waymo … takes away the ‘person could be dangerous’ layer.”

Other appeals of Waymo include the ability to choose which music to play. “I love being able to control the music,” Smith said. “It’s the best thing ever.”

However, not all students share this enthusiasm. Neah McGilloway ’28 stopped using Waymo after having several bad experiences. Once, when on a tight schedule, McGilloway and her mother experienced several delays after ordering a Waymo ride via the company’s mobile app. “We waited for five minutes, and then it gave us a new Waymo that was going to take 10 minutes, … [and] we ended up being 30 minutes late,” she said. 

McGilloway has experienced similar delays with Waymo on several occasions. She now uses Ubers or e-bikes to get around the city. “We just need something that’s a little more dependable,” she said.

Beyond Waymo’s popularity amongst students, Waymo usage is increasing overall. Because of this, Avedian found some Uber drivers’ lack of concern about AVs surprising. “It seems like they put their head in the sand and [said], ‘I’ll just come out and then it’ll be okay,’” Avedian said. “It’s not gonna be okay. I’m a numbers guy, [and] it’s proven.”

According to the San Francisco Standard, Waymo currently has around 1,000 self-driving cars operating in the Bay Area. Waymo reports that in 2025 alone, the company provided more than 14 million rides through its commercial rideshare services in five cities.

Uber drivers may have to adapt to the rise of Waymos in order to maintain a stable income. “Think of it like this: AVs won’t eliminate all jobs, they’ll shift them,” Avedian wrote on The Rideshare Guy. “Those who get ahead of the curve can ride the wave, not be drowned by it.”

According to Avedian, Uber drivers can still earn money from Waymos in different ways. Once they are available for purchase, Avedian plans to buy a fleet of AVs that people can invest in as a source of passive income.

Avedian also shared that once AV technology becomes mainstream, Uber and Lyft drivers may be able to convert their existing cars into AVs. This would allow them to use their cars to earn money without having to drive. However, these actions require access to technology that is not yet widely available.

While some consider self-driving cars to be the future of transportation, some Uber drivers believe that may not be the case for Uber and other rideshare companies. “The future definitely is going to be self-driving cars,” Vasilijevic said. “[But] I think Uber cannot survive without the drivers.”